The main reason that 40% number could be off is if in today’s world Omicron-like events are now much less likely than in the world of 2020-2021. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images) Karen Ducey/Getty ImagesĬovid-19 was the fourth leading cause of death in 2022, CDC data showsĬarrying that forward in time, he estimated that the risk of another such event within the next two years was higher, about 40% between now and May 4, 2025, he told CNN. The highly transmissible omicron variant is putting a significant strain on health systems nationally resulting in staffing shortages and changes in capacity strategies. SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 21: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Nurse Elisa Gilbert checks on a patient in the acute care COVID-19 unit at the Harborview Medical Center on Januin Seattle, Washington. That happened in November 2021, when the Omicron variant was first detected in the US. Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, did some very simple modeling based on the fact that there’s been one Omicron-level shift in the virus in about 3½ years of transmission. Jha pressed him to give a number, and Barouch told him, “my gut feeling is that it’ll be in the 20% range.”īarouch said he was pleasantly surprised to find out that most of the other experts have put the chances around there, too. I thought that that was–it was not an infinitesimal chance, but it also is not an 80% chance,” he said.
“I said that there is a chance that there will be a new variant that is a fundamental shift, kind of like Delta to Omicron was. It really was more of just a informal discussion amongst colleagues, I think,” Barouch said. It was not an official consultation meeting, as far as I could tell.
Ashish Jha, the Covid-19 response coordinator for the White House, for “just a informal phone conversation about my thoughts about immunity and variants and the chance of new variants emerging. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, told CNN that he was one of those experts. Most believed that the odds would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% to 20%.ĭr. WHO says Covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus attends an ACANU briefing on global health issues, including COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine in Geneva in 2022. Director-General of the World Health Organisation Dr.
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